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goaltender) wrote2023-09-03 05:29 am
goaltender) wrote2023-09-03 05:29 am
aka 2026 🇮🇹
this is a nothing post but i just need to gather all my thoughts in one place about the kimi rumors and i guess adjacently ollie and the implications it has for the rest of the grid and what it says about the junior system in general because what even!!!
i remember first hearing this rumor i think... sometime last month, but i legit couldn't tell whether the person who said that even knew themselves that it was a rumor or whether it was just them trolling LMFAO, like i don't remember whether they actually said ~i heard kimi is skipping f3~ with more context to it or if it was just a one-off Kimi To F2 trolljob because people will just say anything and it really did feel too absurd to entertain...
i started writing this post at like 1am and then fell asleep during f3 fr but forced myself awake for f2 and honestly my body's ability to foresee ollie success is too good because i had ZERO belief coming into this race lmfao but i somehow catch all his wins live ❤️ endeared by him stressing out on the radio when they weren't responding to him and his engineer just going nooo everything's good come over here so i can hug you!!! anyway let me wrap up this post so i can wake up in 4 hours for f1...
i've been reflecting on all of the recent discourse and i also watched some of percy's video above ^ predicting next year's f2 grid and i think the merc approach is just so fascinating for so many reasons. kimi has a lot of easy comps of course but i don't think any of them are necessarily fair or applicable here, like the main parallels people usually draw are obviously 1) theo - in this case it's actually interesting to hear him used as a comparison by percy NOT re: leaving f3 too early or spending too long in f2 but more so re: skipping freca, because it's also the ollie model and ollie did do two seasons of adac but percy's entire argument hinges on the developmental rigor / race mileage / set-up complexity of freca in comparison to f3 and so in saying that theo's true fuck up was skipping freca and that two years of f3 wouldn't have changed anything anyway it kind of feels like an indictment of ollie's potential as well lol but that's a whole other story. i also think through this logic the comparison to 2) ollie and saying that well ollie had an extra season and kimi only did one full season really doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of development either because if we're saying that aka lacks racecraft from being so used to starting on pole every weekend and running in clean air all the time and then he was already reaching his unmatched peak in that one season of f4 literally what would extra running have done for him there, so then the question again is whether he should have skipped freca for f3 instead. and then 3) the petecof comp is also i think unfair because his derailing was always extremely financially motivated, like bro was NEVER going to thrive making the jump into fucking campos straight out of prema freca, plus his close championship win was literally over LECLERC and one of his teammates was mfing chadwick... i think it is fair to ask ourselves what we think stenshorne's ceiling is and what the relative significance of kimi's current championship form over him is, and that's something that only time can tell but again i think you >Can< contextualize these things to SOME degree and as much as i do think it's a shame he got fucked over by
^ this is when i fell asleep... who was i talking about. lmfao i don't even know. i think i was going to say petecof got fucked over by his situation and the financial pressure to adapt but at the same time he never had the same cv or stock that kimi had going into freca, and i think mercedes is still setting kimi up with an amount of leeway to acclimate for a 2026 f1 promotion and that 2 years in f2 is still a realistic and feasible benchmark.
in percy's thread he also said that merc were the ones pushing for kimi's promotion but that prema were more reluctant to take him on so soon, which is very interesting because even ignoring why this is the best time to jump to f2 and ignoring the lewis retirement/replacement planning i think it also takes us back to WHY he went to freca in the first place. paul and dino pretty much had to be accommodated and there was no way prema was going to take on a third rookie and overall zak worked out decently, but crucially this also meant that mercedes were willing to "prioritize" paul in some sense at the end of last season or at least were giving him the opportunity to control his own fate and the fact that kimi might get to leapfrog him is an indictment of his performance as much as anything.
right now the latest update from the merc side is toto saying that They're Going To Wait For Freca to be over, so obviously there are still variables in place but since f3 is done it feels like it's really just down to whether kimi wins the championship. at least paul did win out over dino in the rookie battle but zak inched his way to vice champion so i don't know how that affects either of their stocks or push for the prema seat, so if kimi DOES end up making the jump (which i'm 85% sure will happen at this point barring catastrophic final rounds) that's a rough look for paul unless he gets another good seat Lol. i'll scrub through most of the prediction video later but this and then vesti's rotten luck on top of that.......... all the eggs are so clearly in the antonelli basket and atp all the other mercedes guys are just faffing about in that garage waiting for toto to throw them a bone. jesus
but really it's like
> i just can't figure out whether this was ALWAYS (a version of) the plan from merc from the get go, because as uncharacteristic as it seems now a ton of people called the freca move conservative when it happened since it meant he still had to pass through f3 first before doing f2, and it makes me wonder whether they were ALWAYS going to do either 1) f4 > freca > f2 or 2) f4 > f3 > f2 and they knew they wanted him on the f2 grid in time for the new car design. hard to say but i wouldn't be surprised... though i can't believe he's going to do freca > f2 while tsolov repeats f3 these kids are never going to see each other. i wonder whether tsolov will end up looking like theo in the sense of further confirming the freca developmental hypothesis especially since he lacks soo much in race mileage and barely has any experience in single-seaters. i do hope he manages to rebound next year though
anyway tl;dr it's just interesting to me to read hot takes from people who are unambiguously like THIS IS A TERRIBLE IDEA LET KIDS BE KIDS YOU'RE GOING TO KILL HIM WITH THE PRESSURE because i do believe there'd be a certain logic to the move if it were to happen but i also understand that it could end terribly and honestly who even knows at this point. but that's also how i felt about ollie coming into f2 who also skipped freca like theo and tsolov and then nearly won f3 and now has just won his 4th f2 race with a clinical drive to monza fr victory (despite an unserious amount of scs). he's been inconsistent but i really do think he's capable of delivering a title fight next season so..... but it's so easy to become 3rdyearchaire and who even knows what the future holds for tp or the ambiguity of that alfa seat.
i guess what i'm trying to say really is that IF merc believe in him this much and want him in f2 he does have a good buffer that petecof was never afforded, plus a seat at a top team that will symbolically and officially catapult him over paul in the merc junior pecking order, which is definitely significant and weighty but i think in an ultimately supportive way. also him and ollie as teammates... I Will Love It And I Think I Deserve It.
honestly vma is such a terrorist to me right now i need to be normal but his racecraft is seriously shit but he's also got insane pace and i Want to believe that vma-bea will have a good title fight next season but also I'M SCARED. these two cannot stand each other! anyway what matters is that if there's any moment to be skipping f3 it's next season, the playing field and experience gap will be as even as possible with the entirely new chassis, and having ferrari's top prospect in his 2nd year vying for the championship as a benchmark for kimi to learn from is a good concept in theory. like i said it could go Very Poorly but it could also be fine. so who knows
also i can't believe i was like wow crawford has been pretty decent lately he's really gunning to keep his rbjt seat and then he went and closed the door on maini like FIVE SECONDS LATER. my dude... speaking of rbjt is meant to cull a good few of its drivers for next season but i don't even know what half of them are going to do atp. also i wonder whether a junior program is going to pick up stenshorne at the end of this season hmmmm
law > what even is his fate at this point!
had, zma > i don't even care about either of them but hopefully safe and isack gets a dams seat, it's been a rough go of it for him but it'd be nice to see him recover next year
iwa > safe, sf???
lin > probably the safest of them all, hopefully he gets the prema f3 seat if kimi doesn't go
cra, fit > ??? i think they'll definitely drop crawford, enzo is such a wild card i have no idea what's going to happen to him
hau, mon > gurl bye lmfao
+
ok i sleep.......... life has been hectic and i'm honestly just waiting for the mundane routine of hockey to return to me which is ridiculous but alsdfkhdf i think the problem with me is that i have a very finicky threshold required of fandom accessibility to get into things so i enjoy the most basic sports ever but i also feel like f1 is too big for me to exist in the "f1b*r" space in any genuine capacity because these people scare me... why are you all so mad all the time... hence why hockey is a good middle ground because although it's very established rpf-wise it's still easy to follow teams that have 0 remaining tumblr fans (not a single mf tuned into these sabres games)
anyway every day is just being an adult and telling yourself you'll write or draw or do x or y and not doing it but i'm trying. this dumb draft is at 13.4k and now i promise i will not mention it again until it's actually done/posted
already know this weekend is going to be a wash but we ball........ hope everyone's doing well. also this post title is facetious i don't pretend to know the inner machinations of the mercedes amg petronas f1 team ok i need to sleep Good bye
i remember first hearing this rumor i think... sometime last month, but i legit couldn't tell whether the person who said that even knew themselves that it was a rumor or whether it was just them trolling LMFAO, like i don't remember whether they actually said ~i heard kimi is skipping f3~ with more context to it or if it was just a one-off Kimi To F2 trolljob because people will just say anything and it really did feel too absurd to entertain...
i started writing this post at like 1am and then fell asleep during f3 fr but forced myself awake for f2 and honestly my body's ability to foresee ollie success is too good because i had ZERO belief coming into this race lmfao but i somehow catch all his wins live ❤️ endeared by him stressing out on the radio when they weren't responding to him and his engineer just going nooo everything's good come over here so i can hug you!!! anyway let me wrap up this post so i can wake up in 4 hours for f1...
i've been reflecting on all of the recent discourse and i also watched some of percy's video above ^ predicting next year's f2 grid and i think the merc approach is just so fascinating for so many reasons. kimi has a lot of easy comps of course but i don't think any of them are necessarily fair or applicable here, like the main parallels people usually draw are obviously 1) theo - in this case it's actually interesting to hear him used as a comparison by percy NOT re: leaving f3 too early or spending too long in f2 but more so re: skipping freca, because it's also the ollie model and ollie did do two seasons of adac but percy's entire argument hinges on the developmental rigor / race mileage / set-up complexity of freca in comparison to f3 and so in saying that theo's true fuck up was skipping freca and that two years of f3 wouldn't have changed anything anyway it kind of feels like an indictment of ollie's potential as well lol but that's a whole other story. i also think through this logic the comparison to 2) ollie and saying that well ollie had an extra season and kimi only did one full season really doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of development either because if we're saying that aka lacks racecraft from being so used to starting on pole every weekend and running in clean air all the time and then he was already reaching his unmatched peak in that one season of f4 literally what would extra running have done for him there, so then the question again is whether he should have skipped freca for f3 instead. and then 3) the petecof comp is also i think unfair because his derailing was always extremely financially motivated, like bro was NEVER going to thrive making the jump into fucking campos straight out of prema freca, plus his close championship win was literally over LECLERC and one of his teammates was mfing chadwick... i think it is fair to ask ourselves what we think stenshorne's ceiling is and what the relative significance of kimi's current championship form over him is, and that's something that only time can tell but again i think you >Can< contextualize these things to SOME degree and as much as i do think it's a shame he got fucked over by
^ this is when i fell asleep... who was i talking about. lmfao i don't even know. i think i was going to say petecof got fucked over by his situation and the financial pressure to adapt but at the same time he never had the same cv or stock that kimi had going into freca, and i think mercedes is still setting kimi up with an amount of leeway to acclimate for a 2026 f1 promotion and that 2 years in f2 is still a realistic and feasible benchmark.
in percy's thread he also said that merc were the ones pushing for kimi's promotion but that prema were more reluctant to take him on so soon, which is very interesting because even ignoring why this is the best time to jump to f2 and ignoring the lewis retirement/replacement planning i think it also takes us back to WHY he went to freca in the first place. paul and dino pretty much had to be accommodated and there was no way prema was going to take on a third rookie and overall zak worked out decently, but crucially this also meant that mercedes were willing to "prioritize" paul in some sense at the end of last season or at least were giving him the opportunity to control his own fate and the fact that kimi might get to leapfrog him is an indictment of his performance as much as anything.
right now the latest update from the merc side is toto saying that They're Going To Wait For Freca to be over, so obviously there are still variables in place but since f3 is done it feels like it's really just down to whether kimi wins the championship. at least paul did win out over dino in the rookie battle but zak inched his way to vice champion so i don't know how that affects either of their stocks or push for the prema seat, so if kimi DOES end up making the jump (which i'm 85% sure will happen at this point barring catastrophic final rounds) that's a rough look for paul unless he gets another good seat Lol. i'll scrub through most of the prediction video later but this and then vesti's rotten luck on top of that.......... all the eggs are so clearly in the antonelli basket and atp all the other mercedes guys are just faffing about in that garage waiting for toto to throw them a bone. jesus
but really it's like
> i just can't figure out whether this was ALWAYS (a version of) the plan from merc from the get go, because as uncharacteristic as it seems now a ton of people called the freca move conservative when it happened since it meant he still had to pass through f3 first before doing f2, and it makes me wonder whether they were ALWAYS going to do either 1) f4 > freca > f2 or 2) f4 > f3 > f2 and they knew they wanted him on the f2 grid in time for the new car design. hard to say but i wouldn't be surprised... though i can't believe he's going to do freca > f2 while tsolov repeats f3 these kids are never going to see each other. i wonder whether tsolov will end up looking like theo in the sense of further confirming the freca developmental hypothesis especially since he lacks soo much in race mileage and barely has any experience in single-seaters. i do hope he manages to rebound next year though
anyway tl;dr it's just interesting to me to read hot takes from people who are unambiguously like THIS IS A TERRIBLE IDEA LET KIDS BE KIDS YOU'RE GOING TO KILL HIM WITH THE PRESSURE because i do believe there'd be a certain logic to the move if it were to happen but i also understand that it could end terribly and honestly who even knows at this point. but that's also how i felt about ollie coming into f2 who also skipped freca like theo and tsolov and then nearly won f3 and now has just won his 4th f2 race with a clinical drive to monza fr victory (despite an unserious amount of scs). he's been inconsistent but i really do think he's capable of delivering a title fight next season so..... but it's so easy to become 3rdyearchaire and who even knows what the future holds for tp or the ambiguity of that alfa seat.
i guess what i'm trying to say really is that IF merc believe in him this much and want him in f2 he does have a good buffer that petecof was never afforded, plus a seat at a top team that will symbolically and officially catapult him over paul in the merc junior pecking order, which is definitely significant and weighty but i think in an ultimately supportive way. also him and ollie as teammates... I Will Love It And I Think I Deserve It.
honestly vma is such a terrorist to me right now i need to be normal but his racecraft is seriously shit but he's also got insane pace and i Want to believe that vma-bea will have a good title fight next season but also I'M SCARED. these two cannot stand each other! anyway what matters is that if there's any moment to be skipping f3 it's next season, the playing field and experience gap will be as even as possible with the entirely new chassis, and having ferrari's top prospect in his 2nd year vying for the championship as a benchmark for kimi to learn from is a good concept in theory. like i said it could go Very Poorly but it could also be fine. so who knows
also i can't believe i was like wow crawford has been pretty decent lately he's really gunning to keep his rbjt seat and then he went and closed the door on maini like FIVE SECONDS LATER. my dude... speaking of rbjt is meant to cull a good few of its drivers for next season but i don't even know what half of them are going to do atp. also i wonder whether a junior program is going to pick up stenshorne at the end of this season hmmmm
law > what even is his fate at this point!
had, zma > i don't even care about either of them but hopefully safe and isack gets a dams seat, it's been a rough go of it for him but it'd be nice to see him recover next year
iwa > safe, sf???
lin > probably the safest of them all, hopefully he gets the prema f3 seat if kimi doesn't go
cra, fit > ??? i think they'll definitely drop crawford, enzo is such a wild card i have no idea what's going to happen to him
hau, mon > gurl bye lmfao
+
ok i sleep.......... life has been hectic and i'm honestly just waiting for the mundane routine of hockey to return to me which is ridiculous but alsdfkhdf i think the problem with me is that i have a very finicky threshold required of fandom accessibility to get into things so i enjoy the most basic sports ever but i also feel like f1 is too big for me to exist in the "f1b*r" space in any genuine capacity because these people scare me... why are you all so mad all the time... hence why hockey is a good middle ground because although it's very established rpf-wise it's still easy to follow teams that have 0 remaining tumblr fans (not a single mf tuned into these sabres games)
anyway every day is just being an adult and telling yourself you'll write or draw or do x or y and not doing it but i'm trying. this dumb draft is at 13.4k and now i promise i will not mention it again until it's actually done/posted
already know this weekend is going to be a wash but we ball........ hope everyone's doing well. also this post title is facetious i don't pretend to know the inner machinations of the mercedes amg petronas f1 team ok i need to sleep Good bye
no subject
if ollie somehow gets clobbered by kimi and his stock falls, is there really competition within the fda though... just googled the fda and beautiful picture of ollieeee already on the front page... & here for posterity. i cannot speak to the strength of the academy and i know they can just steal like they got carlos but it's kinda reassuring that if he does reasonably well a path to a seat is there. BUT IF HE GETS POURCHAIRED nothing to say. truly wonder how long ferrari are going to keep the c2 pairing...
alonso is proof hamilton can and will keep going until he gets what he wants (8th) so the next to fall on the f1 grid are unfortunately probably just the perpetual non-scorers in backmarker teams... sad for such drivers since it's so hard to prove yourself in a crappy car but (charles voice) it's like this T____T
vma is good for ollie to learn how to deal with i guess... he better come out morally superior!!! ollie has a lot to work on to but this next season is his opportunity and i believe in him, especially after today!!