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goaltendermay 26 already!?!?
anyway i was having a really hard time and i in fact continue to be having a really hard time but it's a little less bad in this exact moment so i will take advantage of my 5-second window of normalcy to engage in some Reflection and Updates without hopefully sounding too insane.
- i don't have time to make in-game gifs in general but even if i wanted to it's like on god the espn stream quality is SO bad and the camera angles are SO bad and it's just.... i am missing the stars broadcast 🥲
- on a more relevant stars note the execution all around on pavs gwg last night was so good. robo entering wide off that soft chip from roop, getting taken down at the half-wall but making a desperation pass to send it to the middle and seguin driving forward to beat his guy to it, pavs timing exactly when to back off to get open for miro's pass and create that open lane to slam it home from the left circle... genuinely a gorgeously maintained sequence. and i do believe that like... okay.
i meant it when i said that i've barely had the chance to emotionally process anything this series because i've just been so stressed and busy from everything else going on in my life, but i do think... what annoyed me earlier was marek regurgitating brind'amour's Sweepasta and then being like yeah he's right because carolina and florida played sooo many close 1-goal games, they were so evenly matched it never felt like it was a true sweep, but until game 4 dallas put on a horrible unconvincing performance and the series would have felt so disappointing if it'd ended there. and i'm like wtf because... Yes at game 3, obviously, no one can dispute that. but game 2, even if you can't point solely to suter's mistake as the entirety of why this series is 3-1 instead of tied 2-2, WAS primarily dallas's game! and i do feel like these teams have been evenly matched on paper as well as playwise in a lot of ways—their styles aren't entirely diametric the way it was with edmonton, where it was very much In Terms Of Executing Systems if one team is succeeding then that means the other team is failing miserably, and that was apparent in a lot of the back and forth of goal-scoring, but that really hasn't been the case with dallas and vegas where literally we've gone to overtime THREE TIMES. and i just... bobrovsky's xg numbers per the public models are exaggerated obviously, so it's not like carolina were generating insane dangerous chances and all these games were entirely stolen by his vezina caliber performance so while i do think there's some truth to hey it was a close-ish series even if that's not fully reflected in the series results what it says is that florida is a good team and it wasn't just bob stealing them games so ... it was still clearly a sweep? and sure a wonky unfurling of luck and small sample-size variance, but... is that not how hockey works??? IS THAT NOT EXACTLY WHAT YOU CAN SAY OF VEGAS AND DALLAS? lmfao.
this series could so so easily be 2-2 instead of 3-1. and obviously you can say that of everything if you dissect it meticulously enough, which to this point is why brind'amour saying that is stupid because It Was Still A Sweep. The Series Is 3-1. even if it's not Inaccurate to be like well if suter hadn't turned that puck over in that one moment the series could be tied. which of course is an oversimplification and we can't say this for sure but it's a particularly easy moment to point to, the same way people point to pittsburgh losing to chicago as a catalyst for the cats going to the stanley cup finals lol. but that's just how it is!
anyway back to the main point i was trying to make, i feel like...... this team is just so stupid and insane because of how everything unfurled — game 1 robo gets his 5v5 goal. we lose in overtime but when do we not? it's the way it always is. that's how game 1s go. game 2... we lose a game we should have won off a Ryan Suter Buy-Out Bid Performance, but 2-0 isn't an insurmountable deficit and we were on the road to start the series for once, and hey the series isn't really over until you lose at home, right? and then game 3 happens. and it's the lowest the team has fallen emotionally all season, it's a unanimous disasterclass of benn's major and food being thrown and wyatt's entire line going down around him and otter getting pulled and... it's a low point to surpass all low points. if the stars had gotten swept after that then benn would have been suspended for the season opener. it felt like a death sentence in so many incomprehensible ways.
and it's to the point where... as otter said there is a beauty in playing with nothing to lose, but i think game 4 was just — it's weird to call it cathartic because in the grand scheme of things (?) it's frankly nothing. but it's still *a* response, and that matters somewhat, top line and robo going out there and taking it upon themselves to keep the series alive even if it will ultimately be too little too late. i don't know how to feel about it but i feel....... something. because as much as people might hate jbenn and i pretty much have 0 feelings about him as well, it's very much inaccurate to pretend that this team isn't motivated in some regard to play for him, and IMO the locker room reaction to the whole thing was probably like >Well he's a Focking Idiot but that doesn't mean he isn't our captain and we still want him back for game 6. because i do think jbenn exerts large and intangible influence on that room still, and he's a character guy in the locker room even if it's easy to say that he's unbearable in all other contexts. so there's that.......
basically can we say that game 4 "redeems" game 3? well i don't know if it's productive to engage in that thought exercise in the first place, but i think..... this team is not going to reverse sweep. i don't even know if they'll win game 5. but yesterday's performance was at the very least a mildly more hopeful note to leave dallas on, even if they won't end playing another game at the aac until september. so there's that.
i could say more about pavs and suter and aspirational unreliability and next year's roster and harls getting a more prominent top 4 role and being the pp2 qb and everything to follow but i guess i'll wait until the season actually ends. i also do want to talk about robo more but. later... next week maybe.
also i've been meaning to make a quick fic notes post for top dog just because i actually want to talk about delly meta but this post is already too long so that'll be for another time as well
also hey we outlived carolina. final 3 out of 32! it's not... something, quite frankly, at least to the guy who's maybe worked for it the most, but it's not nothing either. i don't know.
some screenshots:
1) i'm sorry but why are they like this Every Game.
2) mildly obsessed with 2455 stonks. some interesting stylistic choices happening here
3) new player list gif dropped :') THOSE ARE MY BELOVED QUEBEC TENDIES...
anyway.
- not to be too rude or miserable because i obviously don't mind if it's the baby twitter gays doing this but actual prospect/team pages and sports dudes turning mpp's engagement into a "look at all the men who support gay people because they liked an instagram post!!!" or [insert pride night argument] pissing contest is UNBEARABLE. i don't even care about cc scrabble lore or any moral arguments it's just generally annoying because like...... can women please get married without it being immediately related to bigotry in men's hockey culture??? i try to expend as little energy as possible on Lesbian Discourse Online but this one randomly got to me. apologies. but like come the fuck on.
- read some hockey romances during a heightened moment of stress and didn't realize this one used to be check please fic until after i finished it and went into the reviews (it was suspicious because one of the mcs liked to cook but for some reason i thought it was like just hockey omc "fic" that'd been posted on ao3 first and was vaguely inspired by check please but not... actual cp fic? i'm a bit stupid) anyway it was so bad. but i also read the sequel to winging it and that one was honestly cute i'm nico kirschbaum fan
- bringing this over from salarycap but basically what i want to see from NHL Mock Drafts is like............ okay i know there are nfl simulators that account for team needs so there is some kind of modeling work going on right ??? or i'm not really sure how it works, because obviously I Am Stupid and don't know math, but what's curious to me is that right now all the mock drafts we see in the nhl sphere are like... published deterministic lists that try to predict the singular most likely cascading flow of ultimate draft order based on team need, fit, scouting priors, etc. and that's a very manual analysis process, but... couldn't there be some sort of model made to create aggregate probabilistic outcomes for each prospect at each position, and then allow users to interact with the "most likely" mock draft and change picks at certain points of the flow and see how the model recalibrates probabilities and expectations for the rest of the draft onward? i think that would be SO cool and i do think it could be realistically modeled, i just have no idea who would do it or how it'd work.
like the output would basically have to be weighted probabilities of all the remaining skaters in the pool influenced by things like:
- positional need
- front office emphasis on drafting bpa vs. position first
- prior preference of skater nationality
- prior preference or "risk factor" for size, height, etc.
- ??? things like that
i don't know if any of this makes sense but this is basically what i was thinking of:
and like the change selection dropdown would show a breakdown of all the picks (and they would sum up to 100% obviously) at that position, so at #3 you could pick leo carlsson at 85.75% but maybe smith is like 10% and michkov is 5% and some other guys make up smaller percentages and you could pick them. and it'd just be like How does this one little wrinkle make the rest of the probabilities cascade?? basically.
i feel like this is a very basic probabilistic concept i just don't know anything and i've never seen anything like it in the nhl mock draft sphere so basically. yeah. obviously it doesn't account for teams trading up/down on draft day but it's not like Static Deterministic Mock Drafts do that either so. and to me this is interesting because it can show the huge variance in drafting based on seemingly small or unexpected things, like maybe one gm is known to REALLY go in on positional need and isn't put off by x and y in a prospect so you're like you know what it actually looks like someone whose objective ranking is anywhere in the 20-30 range might go at 15 to this team, but then if that team doesn't pick him then probabilistically he'd fall all the way to the 2nd round. like just little tidbits like that which could be modeled but would be impossible to fully map out all the intricacies and nuances of manually. i don't know!!!!!!!
This is a very long post. good night
eta posts hit list:
- stars players + ship dynamics crash course
- robo vs. otter psychologies
- top dog notes and mild delly meta
anyway i was having a really hard time and i in fact continue to be having a really hard time but it's a little less bad in this exact moment so i will take advantage of my 5-second window of normalcy to engage in some Reflection and Updates without hopefully sounding too insane.
- i don't have time to make in-game gifs in general but even if i wanted to it's like on god the espn stream quality is SO bad and the camera angles are SO bad and it's just.... i am missing the stars broadcast 🥲
- on a more relevant stars note the execution all around on pavs gwg last night was so good. robo entering wide off that soft chip from roop, getting taken down at the half-wall but making a desperation pass to send it to the middle and seguin driving forward to beat his guy to it, pavs timing exactly when to back off to get open for miro's pass and create that open lane to slam it home from the left circle... genuinely a gorgeously maintained sequence. and i do believe that like... okay.
i meant it when i said that i've barely had the chance to emotionally process anything this series because i've just been so stressed and busy from everything else going on in my life, but i do think... what annoyed me earlier was marek regurgitating brind'amour's Sweepasta and then being like yeah he's right because carolina and florida played sooo many close 1-goal games, they were so evenly matched it never felt like it was a true sweep, but until game 4 dallas put on a horrible unconvincing performance and the series would have felt so disappointing if it'd ended there. and i'm like wtf because... Yes at game 3, obviously, no one can dispute that. but game 2, even if you can't point solely to suter's mistake as the entirety of why this series is 3-1 instead of tied 2-2, WAS primarily dallas's game! and i do feel like these teams have been evenly matched on paper as well as playwise in a lot of ways—their styles aren't entirely diametric the way it was with edmonton, where it was very much In Terms Of Executing Systems if one team is succeeding then that means the other team is failing miserably, and that was apparent in a lot of the back and forth of goal-scoring, but that really hasn't been the case with dallas and vegas where literally we've gone to overtime THREE TIMES. and i just... bobrovsky's xg numbers per the public models are exaggerated obviously, so it's not like carolina were generating insane dangerous chances and all these games were entirely stolen by his vezina caliber performance so while i do think there's some truth to hey it was a close-ish series even if that's not fully reflected in the series results what it says is that florida is a good team and it wasn't just bob stealing them games so ... it was still clearly a sweep? and sure a wonky unfurling of luck and small sample-size variance, but... is that not how hockey works??? IS THAT NOT EXACTLY WHAT YOU CAN SAY OF VEGAS AND DALLAS? lmfao.
this series could so so easily be 2-2 instead of 3-1. and obviously you can say that of everything if you dissect it meticulously enough, which to this point is why brind'amour saying that is stupid because It Was Still A Sweep. The Series Is 3-1. even if it's not Inaccurate to be like well if suter hadn't turned that puck over in that one moment the series could be tied. which of course is an oversimplification and we can't say this for sure but it's a particularly easy moment to point to, the same way people point to pittsburgh losing to chicago as a catalyst for the cats going to the stanley cup finals lol. but that's just how it is!
anyway back to the main point i was trying to make, i feel like...... this team is just so stupid and insane because of how everything unfurled — game 1 robo gets his 5v5 goal. we lose in overtime but when do we not? it's the way it always is. that's how game 1s go. game 2... we lose a game we should have won off a Ryan Suter Buy-Out Bid Performance, but 2-0 isn't an insurmountable deficit and we were on the road to start the series for once, and hey the series isn't really over until you lose at home, right? and then game 3 happens. and it's the lowest the team has fallen emotionally all season, it's a unanimous disasterclass of benn's major and food being thrown and wyatt's entire line going down around him and otter getting pulled and... it's a low point to surpass all low points. if the stars had gotten swept after that then benn would have been suspended for the season opener. it felt like a death sentence in so many incomprehensible ways.
and it's to the point where... as otter said there is a beauty in playing with nothing to lose, but i think game 4 was just — it's weird to call it cathartic because in the grand scheme of things (?) it's frankly nothing. but it's still *a* response, and that matters somewhat, top line and robo going out there and taking it upon themselves to keep the series alive even if it will ultimately be too little too late. i don't know how to feel about it but i feel....... something. because as much as people might hate jbenn and i pretty much have 0 feelings about him as well, it's very much inaccurate to pretend that this team isn't motivated in some regard to play for him, and IMO the locker room reaction to the whole thing was probably like >Well he's a Focking Idiot but that doesn't mean he isn't our captain and we still want him back for game 6. because i do think jbenn exerts large and intangible influence on that room still, and he's a character guy in the locker room even if it's easy to say that he's unbearable in all other contexts. so there's that.......
basically can we say that game 4 "redeems" game 3? well i don't know if it's productive to engage in that thought exercise in the first place, but i think..... this team is not going to reverse sweep. i don't even know if they'll win game 5. but yesterday's performance was at the very least a mildly more hopeful note to leave dallas on, even if they won't end playing another game at the aac until september. so there's that.
i could say more about pavs and suter and aspirational unreliability and next year's roster and harls getting a more prominent top 4 role and being the pp2 qb and everything to follow but i guess i'll wait until the season actually ends. i also do want to talk about robo more but. later... next week maybe.
also i've been meaning to make a quick fic notes post for top dog just because i actually want to talk about delly meta but this post is already too long so that'll be for another time as well
also hey we outlived carolina. final 3 out of 32! it's not... something, quite frankly, at least to the guy who's maybe worked for it the most, but it's not nothing either. i don't know.
some screenshots:
1) i'm sorry but why are they like this Every Game.
2) mildly obsessed with 2455 stonks. some interesting stylistic choices happening here
3) new player list gif dropped :') THOSE ARE MY BELOVED QUEBEC TENDIES...
anyway.
- not to be too rude or miserable because i obviously don't mind if it's the baby twitter gays doing this but actual prospect/team pages and sports dudes turning mpp's engagement into a "look at all the men who support gay people because they liked an instagram post!!!" or [insert pride night argument] pissing contest is UNBEARABLE. i don't even care about cc scrabble lore or any moral arguments it's just generally annoying because like...... can women please get married without it being immediately related to bigotry in men's hockey culture??? i try to expend as little energy as possible on Lesbian Discourse Online but this one randomly got to me. apologies. but like come the fuck on.
- read some hockey romances during a heightened moment of stress and didn't realize this one used to be check please fic until after i finished it and went into the reviews (it was suspicious because one of the mcs liked to cook but for some reason i thought it was like just hockey omc "fic" that'd been posted on ao3 first and was vaguely inspired by check please but not... actual cp fic? i'm a bit stupid) anyway it was so bad. but i also read the sequel to winging it and that one was honestly cute i'm nico kirschbaum fan
- bringing this over from salarycap but basically what i want to see from NHL Mock Drafts is like............ okay i know there are nfl simulators that account for team needs so there is some kind of modeling work going on right ??? or i'm not really sure how it works, because obviously I Am Stupid and don't know math, but what's curious to me is that right now all the mock drafts we see in the nhl sphere are like... published deterministic lists that try to predict the singular most likely cascading flow of ultimate draft order based on team need, fit, scouting priors, etc. and that's a very manual analysis process, but... couldn't there be some sort of model made to create aggregate probabilistic outcomes for each prospect at each position, and then allow users to interact with the "most likely" mock draft and change picks at certain points of the flow and see how the model recalibrates probabilities and expectations for the rest of the draft onward? i think that would be SO cool and i do think it could be realistically modeled, i just have no idea who would do it or how it'd work.
like the output would basically have to be weighted probabilities of all the remaining skaters in the pool influenced by things like:
- positional need
- front office emphasis on drafting bpa vs. position first
- prior preference of skater nationality
- prior preference or "risk factor" for size, height, etc.
- ??? things like that
i don't know if any of this makes sense but this is basically what i was thinking of:
and like the change selection dropdown would show a breakdown of all the picks (and they would sum up to 100% obviously) at that position, so at #3 you could pick leo carlsson at 85.75% but maybe smith is like 10% and michkov is 5% and some other guys make up smaller percentages and you could pick them. and it'd just be like How does this one little wrinkle make the rest of the probabilities cascade?? basically.
i feel like this is a very basic probabilistic concept i just don't know anything and i've never seen anything like it in the nhl mock draft sphere so basically. yeah. obviously it doesn't account for teams trading up/down on draft day but it's not like Static Deterministic Mock Drafts do that either so. and to me this is interesting because it can show the huge variance in drafting based on seemingly small or unexpected things, like maybe one gm is known to REALLY go in on positional need and isn't put off by x and y in a prospect so you're like you know what it actually looks like someone whose objective ranking is anywhere in the 20-30 range might go at 15 to this team, but then if that team doesn't pick him then probabilistically he'd fall all the way to the 2nd round. like just little tidbits like that which could be modeled but would be impossible to fully map out all the intricacies and nuances of manually. i don't know!!!!!!!
This is a very long post. good night
eta posts hit list:
- stars players + ship dynamics crash course
- robo vs. otter psychologies
- top dog notes and mild delly meta
no subject
Date: 2023-05-28 09:00 am (UTC)re: hockey romance pubs, i feel like i need ... a map of the various books + what fics or ships they're obviously based on LOL. I was about to say i only got halfway thru scoring position but apparently i got 80% thru????? i found it like... both more accurate to how hockey works socially+economically as well as in actual play than i was Expecting but also then like.... not quite right either in a way that made it eerie.
i had to go back in my dw cause i couldnt find the actual epub in my files and there was no way that googling was going to show anything but i DID enjoy season's change by cait nary, it felt basically similar genre to scoring position in terms of actually having a decent handle on hockey generally + caring about that a lot narratively. i did also just start a new one that is by a tumblrmoot i've never talked to but it's also written in the Exact Same Prose Style.... i assume it's an editorial choice and do to with publishing in the Romance Genre or w/e but i do find it so unnerving that they all have the exact same tone and it's actually so different just on a prose level compared to fic. or like.... other misc. books. idk! it's Intriguing!!!!
and as always highly grateful for yr reflections and thoughts and mega-brained stats ideas.... no one is doing it like u
no subject
Date: 2023-05-31 07:04 am (UTC)anyway yeah winging it/scoring position are both very much like... if you evaluate them in a vacuum there are little nitpicky things that kind of take you out but then if you compare them to 95% of hockey romance content out there they're pretty solid (at least from what I'VE seen but i'm not that well-versed admittedly) which i appreciate. i feel like people who write omc/omc hockey "fic" before they go into publishing are generally more reputable than the ones who publish their actual omgcp fic because the details on the one i read were genuinely EGREGIOUSSSS... also i've been trying to read this one ncaa top prospects rivalry ya romance book for unironically the past 10 months and every time i'm like surely it's not That bad, i feel like i could force myself through it or at least hateread it if i really wanted to, etc... and then i try and it's literally that bad. i didn't know reading a generic ya book could be this excruciating.
i'm intrigued by season's change so i'll check it out! i've actually read a lot of fitzpatrick/youcouldmakealife stuff lol and i went and read thrown off the ice after the same mutual's book came out because i saw a bunch of people in the reviews compare it to that... but i still haven't read the actual book yet asldfkh i should get on that. it's definitely interesting to see the triangulation of prose styles from hockey/sports-specific fic + Generic 2023 "New Adult" Tropes + self-published romances
and i am always thinking of stupid ideas that have no basis in reality LOL but thank you as always for the support... :')
no subject
Date: 2023-06-01 01:56 am (UTC)tbh i hadnt even thought of OMGCP fic being one of the sources for the origific Mild Boom but that makes sooo much sense... and LOLLLL @ there being a noticeable quality/attn to detail difference. i hated omgcp with the fury of a thousand suns so i never bothered looking at the fic, but i assume there might be some.... recuperative fix it fic from similarly frustrated ppl? i read a random rarepair(?) one recently off a rec and enjoyed it well enough
goddd i forgot about the youcouldmakealife verse I Was Literally There At The Sacrements and so on.... i feel like there was a big turn against it after the main story or sequel wrapped up but its crazy to look at it now and see that they've just... .. . . . . . .. kept going. interesting that they've kinda saddled the fic/original publishing border way more and not just committed to putting out Books Only.